Agent-based integrated assessment modelling: the example of climate change

Current approaches to deal with the socio-economic implications of climate change rely heavily on economic models that compare costs and benefits of different measures. We show that the theoretical foundations underpinning current approaches to economic modelling of climate change are inappropriate for the type of questions that are being asked. We argue therefore that another tradition of modelling, social simulation, is more appropriate in dealing with the complex environmental problems we face today.     

区域定量风险评价方法及其在化工园区中的运用

介绍区域定量风险评价的基本原理和评价指标,建立风险计算模型,给出定量风险评价的程序,提出区域定量风险评价方法;利用开发的个人风险计算软件,对某化工园区中区域风险进行了评价;通过分析计算,给出了该区域的个人风险等值线分布图和社会风险图;结果表明,园区中3家企业的重大危险源需进一步采取措施降低风险,使该化工园区的个人风险和社会风险符合推荐标准的要求。该方法为全面了解化工园区风险提供了理论依据,对化工园区装置的布置和科学规划具有重要的指导意义。     

可持续发展中的规划问题

本文首先从系统论的角度对规划的本质特征进行了初步的探讨。阐述了规划作为一种手段在社会可持续发展中的意义。规划是将现实世界与理性世界的人类生活模式和思维模式整合在一起的过程。使社会有序、和谐的运行。规划的体系结构由战略规划、整体规划、部门规划、空间规划构成，在规划的层次性和时效性的关联下而形成。规划的对象和内容依人们对自然(生态)秩序、社会秩序、政治秩序、技术秩序和经济秩序等的不同理解和追求而具体确定。     

关于"环境贴现率"问题的探讨

推导一个描述私人利润率和社会利润率之间的新公式。该公式涉及的２个相关的环境参数为：环境投资占国民收入的百分比（λ）;从环境投资角度出发定义的环境改善的弹性（η）。公式表明,从环境的观点出发,社会利润率或环境贴率应该随则系统地降低。此外,本文还引用了“环境阻力”的概念来论述模型的意义,同时还简要地讨论了环境阻力的计算方法。     

长江上游生态环境和社会经济条件研究与评价

以乌江和川江流域为研究范围支系统理论为指导,从综合观点出发,对自然和社会经济环境特征及其对森林影响的评价,生态经济分区与生态经济防护林体系宏观布局,以及不同生态经济区防护林体系建设前景的定量这三个层次开展了研究工作。     

Are two cynics better than one? Toward understanding effects of leader–follower (in‐)congruence in social cynicism

Prior research suggests that leaders' social cynicism can undermine important follower outcomes such as followers' motivation and performance. However, these studies have exclusively focused on leaders' social cynicism and neglected that followers' views on the social world might also influence the leadership process. On the basis of theories of social beliefs and person–supervisor fit, we offer an integrative perspective and predict that it is the congruence between leaders' and followers' social cynicism that shapes leadership dynamics. Data from 116 leader–follower dyads from a broad range of organizations and industries support our model: Polynomial regression and response surface analyses show significant congruence effects of leaders' and followers' social cynicism on followers' extra‐role behaviors and followers' proactive work behaviors. These positive effects of congruence on follower outcomes are transmitted by leader–member exchange quality. Finally, congruence effects are stronger when leaders' and followers' social cynicism is low rather than high. Overall, our study suggests that it is the correspondence between leaders' and followers' social cynicism that influences followers' leader–member exchange, extra‐role, and proactive behavior. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings for designing functional leader–follower dyads in organizations.     

Complex dynamics in the uptake of new farming practices: a case study for organic waste application

Adverse environmental effects of intensive agriculture, together with scarcity in phosphates and water, urge farmers to find more sustainable practices. An example of such a sustainable practice is on-farm processing of organic waste. This paper explores three mechanisms that can lead to a widespread uptake of this technique: (1) economies of scale, (2) information sharing, and (3) adjustment of social norms. Although each of these mechanisms has been studied before, this paper provides new insights by considering the interactions that might exist between the different mechanisms when they are applied to real-life situations. Based on a pilot study, we developed a multi-criteria mathematical programming model at individual farm level. We used this model to simulate the uptake of on-farm processing of organic waste, as a result of the three mechanisms and their interactions. Our results show that each mechanism results in an increased uptake, but is not likely to cause a widespread uptake. Interaction between the mechanisms, will lead to a much higher uptake. This result suggests that simultaneous consideration of multiple mechanisms is essential to understand the behaviour of social–ecological systems.     

基于多群组SEM的有感领导对群体不安全行为影响研究

为了研究有感领导对建筑施工不同经验工人群体不安全行为的影响,采用问卷调查方法,以群体安全氛围为中介变量,建立了多群组结构方程模型(SEM),并运用AMOS软件分析了有感领导核心四要素(能见度、关系、对工作团体的投入、主动管理)对群体不安全行为的影响及路径系数。结果表明:有感领导对经验缺乏的新工人群体的影响均大于老工人群体;对新工人群体,能见度和主动管理对其不安全行为影响较大,路径系数分别为0.654和0.639;而对老工人群体,关系和对工作团体的投入对其影响较大,路径系数分别为0.577和0.561。因此,在实施有感领导管理时,面对不同经验工人群体,应该因人而宜,以实现更加有效的管理。     

Duty hours and incidents in flight among commercial airline pilots

Introduction. Working long duty hours has often been associated with increased risk of incidents and accidents in transport industries. Despite this, information regarding the intermediate relationship between duty hours and incident risk is limited. This study aimed to test a work hours/incident model to identify the interplay of factors contributing to incidents within the aviation industry. Methods. Nine hundred and fifty-four European-registered commercial airline pilots completed a 30-item survey investigating self-report attitudes and experiences of fatigue. Path analysis was used to test the proposed model. Results. The fit indices indicated this to be a good fit model (χ²?=?11.066, df?=?5, p?=?0.05; Comparative Fit Index?=?0.991; Normed Fit Index?=?0.984; Tucker–Lewis Index?=?0.962; Root Mean Square of Approximation?=?0.036). Highly significant relationships were identified between duty hours and sleep disturbance (r?=?0.18, p?r?=?0.40, p?r?=?0.43, p?Discussion. A critical pathway from duty hours through to self-reported incidents in flight was identified. Further investigation employing both objective and subjective measures of sleep and fatigue is needed.     

日照市环保部门对环境检测机构的监管与研究

近年来,随着环境检测市场的放开,社会化检测机构的数量急剧增加.日照市环保局通过探索,在对社会环境检测机构监管方面,摸索提出了"出台管理办法-实行服务承诺-落实项目报备-执行全过程监督检查-持续信息公开"的监管模式,简述了日照市环保局在监管过程中发现的社会环境监测机构普遍存在的问题,并就环保部门以后如何对社会环境检测机构进行监管、规范环境检测市场提出了对策和建议,即:实行环境检测资质行政许可、采取从业人员准入制度、建立信用监控体系和信息化管理服务平台.